Since his surprise victory in the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump has been subjected to questions over whether he can fulfill a full term in office. Known throughout most of his professional life as an entrepreneur and real estate developer, Trump entered the White House without any public sector experience, prompting many to openly inquired about his commitment to governing and whether his many controversies could lead to his resignation or impeachment.
Trump's possible impeachment has been a hot-button issue for quite some time. In April, Allan J. Lichtman, a history professor at American University who drew widespread attention for accurately predicting Trump’s victory, released the book "The Case for Impeachment," which outlined eight reasons why and how he can be removed from office. Earlier this month, New Yorker reporter Evan Osnos detailed the many paths through the 25th Amendment for Trump to be impeached, while also providing the many obstacles.
Meanwhile, Trump has also conceded that the job has been more demanding than he expected. "I loved my previous life. I had so many things going,” Trump told Reuters in April. “This is more work than in my previous life. I thought it would be easier."
The many ways for Trump to permanently leave the Oval Office have not been lost on Las Vegas oddsmakers. Many online betting sites, like Bovada, have consistently released betting odds over Trump's chances to complete a four-year term.
The current timing for political prediction is intriguing due to the recent firing of FBI Director James B. Comey, who was leading an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and the involvement of Trump's associates.
According to Naomi Totten, a spokesperson for Paddy Power Betfair, there has been renewed interest in betting on Trump's future because of the Comey firing. "Nearly 2,000 bets have been placed on the President to leave in 2017 in the Trump Exit Date market since James Comey's dismissal on Tuesday, forcing the odds in from 10.00 to 4.00 this morning, although there has been a slight drift back to 6.40," read a statement.
Oddsshark figures point to the fact that there are still better odds of Trump staying on for a full term than not, with him remaining the president at -130. Trump's odds of being convicted by the Senate in his first term are +400, while his odds for being impeached by the House in his first term are +125. The odds of Trump resigning before his first term ends are at +135.
There are also odds of when Trump will exit the White House. The odds he leaves in 2017 are +350, compared to +400 in 2018 and +450 in 2019. He still has a strong chance of sticking around until 2020 or later, with -120 odds.
As for Trump resigning, his odds are at +250. The last president to resign was Richard Nixon in 1974.
Bovada lists Democrats' chances of retaking the White House in 2020 at -155 and the Republicans at +125.
In March, economics reporter Paul Solman of PBS talked with a spokesman for Irish bookmaker Paddy Power. When asked about the odds of Trump being impeached before four years, the spokesperson said it's the "main bet" and the most popular. "At the moment, he’s 6-4. And that means he’s about 40 percent likely. The odds would suggest it’s 40 percent likely he’s impeached in his first term, yes."